Expected value (EV) is a term we sometimes use to describe what one can expect to win over time on free spins for example. The expected value is not a guaranteed profit. The probability of winning exactly the expected value is actually quite small. The expected value is based on making an offer thousands, millions or infinitely number of times. In this way one can calculate an average value of how much one can be expected to win.

**Matched betting**

Traditional gambling is always associated with a risk. There are few people who over time manage to win over the bookmakers. The odds at the bookmakers are set to give them an advantage over their customers, just as the winning chances of the casinos are carefully calculated to give the casino an advantage.

Matched betting is used to give the players an advantage over the bookmakers. By using the method, one can remove the risk associated with traditional gambling and instead take advantage of the bookmakers bonuses to make money. In our guides we write how much our customers should make from each offer they have been given. The sum is based on the use of matched betting and is dependent on how much you have to wager and the tool Oddsmatcher’s rating percentage on the matches you are betting on. If you use matched betting you should, when taking an offer, win around the sum that we write in our guides. You do not have to rely on luck at all to the extent that traditional players do.

**Expected value**

Expected value (EV) is a term we sometimes use to describe what one can expect to win over time on free spins for example. The expected value is not a guaranteed profit. The probability of winning exactly the expected value is actually quite small. The expected value is based on making an offer thousands, millions or infinitely number of times. In this way one can calculate an average value of how much one can be expected to win.

If an expected value for an offer is positive you should make money from it over time. If it is negative then one can expect to lose money from it, over time. However, this does not mean that if you take an offer with a positive expected value, you make money from it every single time.

Example: You toss a coin with a friend and you bet 100 kr that it will be heads and your friend bet 100 kr on tails. The expected value in this case is neutral as your chances of winning are equal. However, one can still be lucky or unlucky. If you do this 4 times, there is a risk that you will lose more times than you win. But over time you should win as much as you lose.

*How to calculate expected value: (Probability of Winning x Amount Won per Bet) – (Probability of Losing x Amount Lost per Bet).*

According to the above example, the calculation is as follows: (0.5 x 100 kr) – (0.5 x 100 kr) = 50 kr – 50 kr = 0 kr.

If you instead toss a coin with a friend and you bet 50 kr that it will be heads and your friend bets 100 kr at tails, then the calculation will be as follows: (0.5 x 100 kr) – (0.5 x 50 kr) = 50 kr – 25 kr = 25 kr.

This means that you have a positive expected value of 25 kr, which makes it a beneficial bet for you. Over time, you should therefore win 25 kr for each coin you toss. The more times you repeat the bet, the greater the chance of winning. If you only make the bet two times the risk is great that your friend wins twice in a row and you lose 100 kr.

The expected value can be calculated more easily if, for example, you have been offered free spins. Say you have been offered 100 free spins, where each spin is worth 1 kr, which means that your free spins are worth a total of 100 kr. The game you choose to play on has a return to player percentage of 95%, which means that if you play for 100 kr indefinitely you will get back an average of 95 kr and lose 5 kr. The expected value is thus 95 kr and has been calculated by multiplying the value of your free spins by the game’s return to player percentage: 100 kr x 0.95 = 95 kr. However, this does not mean that you are guaranteed to win 95 kr on your free spins. If you are really unlucky, you might not win anything, if you are really lucky you might win the jackpot!